Black Friday price tracking is the simplest way to stop paying a “sale” price that isn’t a sale at all. A popular tip on Reddit’s r/LifeProTips put it well in October 2026: if you start logging prices now, you’ll know by 27 November whether a discount is real or just a marked-up price with a red sticker on it.
The data backs that up. When the UK consumer group Which? tracked Black Friday deals for a year, it found that only 2% were at their lowest price on the day itself.
Key takeaways
- Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday 27 November, with Cyber Monday on 30 November.
- In a Which? study of 208 Black Friday deals from 2022, just 2% were cheapest on the day, and 86% were the same price or cheaper at other times of year.
- Australia’s competition watchdog found that about half of the 50 sellers it checked in 2025 made concerning sale claims, including inflated “original” prices.
- Free tools such as CamelCamelCamel and Chrome’s Shopping insights show price history, so you can check a deal in seconds.
- Starting five or six weeks early gives you a baseline that retailers can’t fake.
Why are so many Black Friday deals fake?
The trick has a name: reference pricing. A shop shows a high “was” price next to the sale price, so the discount looks bigger than it is. If that “was” price only lasted a few weeks, or never really applied, the saving is mostly theatre.
The Reddit poster described exactly this. Retailers raise the everyday price of an item before the sales, then advertise a big drop that works out to only a few percentage points off what you could have paid in September.
Regulators have noticed. In its 2025 Black Friday sweep, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reviewed 50 sellers and found about half made concerning claims. The problems included inflated original prices, “sitewide” sales that covered only a few products, and countdown timers that quietly reset, AAP reported. ACCC deputy chair Catriona Lowe said the fear of missing out “might mean they don’t go to other websites to compare.”
What the numbers say about Black Friday prices
Which? has run this test for several years. Its most detailed study tracked the daily prices of 208 deals at eight UK retailers for six months before and after Black Friday 2022, as LBC reported in November 2023. Only five of those deals were cheapest on the day.
| Which? finding (2022 deals) | Result |
|---|---|
| Deals checked | 208 at eight retailers |
| Cheapest on Black Friday itself | 2% (5 deals) |
| Same price or cheaper at other times | 86% |
| Argos products cheaper at other times | 75% |
| Amazon products cheaper at other times | 69% |
One example: second-generation Apple AirPods sold for £119 on Black Friday at Argos and Currys. Between May and September of that year, the same earbuds had cost £99 to £109.
That doesn’t mean every deal is a con. Some prices really do drop. But for most items, the honest answer is that Black Friday matches a price you could have got earlier, not a better one.
How to start Black Friday price tracking in 10 minutes
Think of it like checking a house’s sale history before you make an offer. You aren’t guessing what’s fair. You’re looking at what people actually paid.
- Write the list. Put down every item you’ve been holding off on, with the exact model number. A “55-inch TV” is not a product. A specific model is.
- Record the price now. A spreadsheet with three columns works: item, date, price. Add a row each week until late November.
- Check the history. For Amazon, paste the product link into CamelCamelCamel, a free price-history site. It charts past prices and emails you when the price falls below a target you set. Keepa does the same with more detail, though some features need a paid plan.
- Use your browser. Chrome on desktop shows a “Shopping insights” panel on many product pages, with a typical price range and up to 90 days of price history, according to Google’s 2023 announcement. In the UK, Which? points shoppers to PriceRunner and PriceSpy.
- Set a “buy” price. Decide before the sales what price makes the item worth it. Then you’re comparing numbers, not reacting to a countdown clock.
How do you tell a real deal from a fake one?
Once you have a few weeks of data, the patterns jump out. Watch for these signs:
- The price rose in October or early November. A jump a few weeks before the sale, followed by a “discount”, is the classic inflate-then-cut move.
- The sale price matches an earlier low. If the history chart shows the same price in summer, you’re not getting anything special.
- “Up to 70% off” banners. The top figure often applies to a handful of items. Check the price of the thing you actually want.
- A timer that keeps resetting. Reload the page later. If the clock starts again, the urgency is fake.
A real deal looks different: a price clearly below anything in the last three to six months, from a seller you trust. If you see that, buy without guilt. That’s the whole point of waiting.
The same check works for sales outside November too. We used price comparisons in our look at the All-Clad Factory Seconds sale, where some discounts were bigger than others.
What happens next
Black Friday 2026 is on 27 November and Cyber Monday is on 30 November, but many retailers start “early Black Friday” deals in the weeks before. That makes early tracking more useful, not less. The earlier your first price, the harder it is for a shop to pass off a raised baseline as normal.
Keep watching after the sales too. In the Which? data, many products were as cheap or cheaper in December and the following spring. TVs in particular tend to fall after new models launch.
My view: Black Friday isn’t worthless, but it’s a date, not a guarantee. The shopper with a spreadsheet beats the shopper with a countdown clock nearly every time.
FAQ
When should I start tracking prices for Black Friday?
As early as you can, ideally by mid-October. Five or six weeks of prices gives you a baseline from before most retailers start their pre-sale changes. Tools like CamelCamelCamel also show months of past data, so it’s never too late to check.
Are Black Friday deals ever genuinely good?
Some are. But Which?’s study of 2022 deals found only 2% were cheapest on the day, and 86% were the same price or cheaper at other times. A deal is real when the price is clearly below its recent history.
What free tools show price history?
CamelCamelCamel covers Amazon for free and sends price alerts. Chrome’s Shopping insights panel shows up to 90 days of history on many product pages. UK shoppers can also use PriceRunner and PriceSpy.
Your next step: open a spreadsheet, list the three things you’re waiting to buy, and log their prices before the end of October 2026.
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