New Zealand’s latest national climate report says the country has warmed 1.36°C since 1909. That warming sets the stage for a very strong El Niño heading into the 2026-27 summer. Climate scientist James Renwick writes that the combination has pushed the country’s climate into “uncharted territory,” and the NZ climate report backs that up with a long list of measurements.
Here’s what the report found, why the El Niño matters, and what the next few months could look like.
Key takeaways
- The government report Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 came out on 7 October 2026.
- New Zealand is 1.36°C warmer than in 1909, and seven of its 10 warmest years on record fell between 2016 and 2025.
- Glacier ice dropped from 56 cubic kilometres in 1997 to 30 in 2023, a fall of almost half.
- The seas around New Zealand have warmed 34% faster than the global average.
- A possibly record-strength El Niño is expected to peak over the 2026-27 summer, bringing drier conditions to the north and east and heavier rain to the west of the South Island.
What does the NZ climate report actually say?
Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 is a three-yearly assessment required by the Environmental Reporting Act 2015. The first edition came out in 2017. The government statement released with it, reported by Down To Earth, says it gives “an independent picture of how the climate is changing.”
The picture isn’t a comforting one. Across 30 long-running monitoring sites, winters very likely warmed at every single site between 1972 and 2025. Most sites also warmed in spring, summer and autumn.
The cause is just as clear. Carbon dioxide measured at Baring Head, near Wellington, has risen 30% since 1972. The yearly rate of increase is now three times what it was in the 1960s.
The numbers that stand out
Here are the report’s headline findings, with what has already happened next to what’s projected.
| Indicator | Observed so far | Projected |
|---|---|---|
| Air temperature | +1.36°C since 1909 | 0.8°C to 3.2°C above the 1995-2014 average by 2100 |
| Glaciers | 56 km³ (1997) down to 30 km³ (2023) | Lose 14-86% of 2015 volume (low emissions) or 69-100% (high emissions) by 2100 |
| Sea surface | Warming 34% faster than the global average | +1°C to 1.5°C by mid-century |
| Sea level | Rising and accelerating | More than 20 cm above 1995-2014 levels between 2045 and 2050 |
| Extreme rain | More humid air over the past decade | Wettest day of the year up 8-28% by 2100 (high emissions) |
The rainfall figure is the one to watch. In a high-emissions world, 40-50% of locations could see their 1-in-10-year downpour turn up twice as often. Rain from tropical cyclones could get 15-55% more intense, even if the storms themselves don’t become more frequent.
Why does a record El Niño make this worse?
El Niño is a natural swing in the tropical Pacific. The ocean along the equator runs warmer than usual, and that shifts wind and rain patterns around the world. For New Zealand it usually means stronger westerly winds. The west gets wetter, and the north and east get drier.
The one forming in 2026 is unusually strong. In its July outlook, Earth Sciences New Zealand put the chance of the event reaching “very strong” intensity at about 90%, 1News reported on 31 July 2026. Atmospheric indicators set their strongest July readings on record. The strongest El Niños on record, in 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015, all pushed sea temperatures roughly 2.5°C above normal.
Picture a staircase with a wave washing over it. El Niño is the wave, and it comes and goes. Warming is the staircase, and every step is higher than the last. When a big wave lands on a higher step, it reaches places it never reached before. That is Renwick’s point in his piece for The Conversation: this El Niño is building on a baseline that’s already the warmest New Zealand has ever measured.
Who feels it first?
Farmers are likely to feel it before anyone else. The report links drought to lower dairy output and higher costs for storing water. It also says the areas suited to kiwifruit, avocados and blueberries are moving. Warmer winters bring less winter chill, and apple and stone-fruit trees need that chill to fruit well.
- Fisheries and aquaculture: commercial fish stocks are moving as the water warms, and marine heatwaves and algal blooms put farmed salmon and shellfish at risk. The Tasman Sea has become a marine heatwave hotspot.
- Coastal communities: Renwick writes that losing some coastal property and infrastructure this century is “virtually inevitable”, especially where the land is sinking.
- Māori communities: more than 80% of Māori households are exposed to flood risk, and many marae sit on coasts or floodplains.
- Tourism and transport: floods and landslips cut roads and power lines. Visitor numbers fell after Cyclone Gabrielle, and the report expects similar dips after future disasters.
The report also warns about compound events, where one disaster lands on top of another. The 2023 Auckland Anniversary floods hit after weeks of heavy rain had already soaked the ground. It’s the same kind of chain reaction scientists worry about in the Arctic, where fires speed up permafrost thaw.
Is New Zealand a big part of the problem?
In raw terms, no. In per-person terms, yes. New Zealanders make up 0.06% of the world’s population but produce 0.17% of global emissions, which puts the country among the top 40 emitters per person. Most domestic emissions come from agriculture and transport. Transport is the sector where other countries are moving fastest, as Europe’s jump in EV sales shows.
My view: the report is careful and measured, but the numbers aren’t. When a country loses nearly half its glacier ice in 26 years, “uncharted” sounds like a fair description.
What happens next
El Niño is expected to peak over the 2026-27 summer. Forecasters expect below-normal rain across much of the North Island and in the east of both islands. The West Coast and the lower South Island face more heavy rain and strong wind. Earth Sciences New Zealand issues a seasonal climate outlook every month, and those updates are the best way to follow the event as it develops.
Longer term, the next edition of the report is due in 2029. It will show whether the pace of change kept up through this El Niño.
FAQ
When was Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026 released?
The New Zealand government released it on 7 October 2026. It is the three-yearly national assessment required by the Environmental Reporting Act 2015.
How much has New Zealand warmed?
The country’s average annual temperature has risen 1.36°C since records began in 1909. Seven of the 10 warmest years fell between 2016 and 2025.
What will El Niño do to New Zealand’s 2026-27 summer?
It is likely to bring a drier, windier summer to the north and east, with a higher drought risk. The west of the South Island is likely to get more heavy rain.
If you live in New Zealand or farm there, check your regional council’s drought and water-restriction updates before summer starts, and follow the monthly climate outlook.
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