The fossil fuel comeback in American power is no longer a prediction. It’s in the paperwork: developers now plan to build about 68 gigawatts of new fossil capacity between 2026 and 2030, almost all of it natural gas, and that number grew 45% in just six months.
The figures come from a report released on 13 October 2026 by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Atlas Public Policy, built on federal generator data. The Verge summed it up: the US is lining up more fossil fuel infrastructure than it has in a decade, while renewable growth slows.
Key takeaways
- Fossil fuels make up about 30% of planned new US generation capacity, the highest share since 2016. In 2024 they were just 5% of what actually got built.
- If the plans go ahead, fossil plants could be about 70% of new capacity coming online in 2030, a share last seen in the early 2010s.
- Clean power still has the biggest pipeline, but its growth has slowed since its 2024 peak.
- Rising demand from data centers, factories and EVs is one main driver. Federal policy is the other.
- Turbine shortages and uncertain data center forecasts could stop some of these gas plants from ever getting built.
What does the fossil fuel comeback actually look like?
Think of the power pipeline as a restaurant’s order book. Two years ago it was almost all solar, wind and batteries. Now nearly one order in three is for a gas plant.
According to EDF’s summary of the report, the data reflects projects reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as of the second quarter of 2026. Clean energy is still the biggest single slice. The difference is speed: fossil projects are being added fast, and clean projects are not.
Coal is part of the story too, mostly because it isn’t leaving. Owners planned to retire 8.5 GW of coal plants in 2025. Less than 1 GW actually closed, the lowest figure since 2009.
Why is America building gas plants again?
The first reason is demand. For about 15 years, US electricity use barely grew. That has changed. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of 7 October 2026, the EIA projected consumption rising from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,288 billion in 2026 and 4,356 billion in 2027. Most of that growth comes from data centers running AI and crypto workloads.
Data centers want power around the clock. Gas plants are “dispatchable”, meaning operators can turn them up or down on command, so utilities see them as the safe bet for a 24/7 customer.
The second reason is policy. The report says the Trump administration has ended wind and solar tax credits, delayed or blocked clean projects, ordered coal plants slated for retirement to keep running and announced $850 million to support coal facilities, including two proposed new plants.
Clean projects are also dying more often. As Utility Dive reported, nearly 5% of the 281.7 GW of planned clean capacity was cancelled in 2025. For fossil projects the figure was 2.9%: 1.5 GW out of 51.6 GW.
Gas vs clean power: how the numbers compare
| Measure | Clean power (solar, wind) | Fossil (mostly gas) |
|---|---|---|
| Lifetime cost of new plants | About $68–69 per MWh | About $90 per MWh (combined-cycle gas) |
| Cancellations in 2025 | 13.1 GW of 281.7 GW (about 4.7%) | 1.5 GW of 51.6 GW (2.9%) |
| Where half the planned capacity sits | Texas, California, Arizona | Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania |
| Main risk | Policy hostility, lost tax credits | Turbine shortages, fuel price swings |
Texas leads both lists, which tells you something. The state that builds the most power builds a bit of everything.
Will this make your electricity bill go up?
EDF argues it will. Its analysis puts new wind and utility-scale solar at roughly $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour over their lifetimes, against about $90 for new combined-cycle gas. “Filling America’s power pipeline with more fossil fuels could lock in higher costs, volatile fuel prices” and more pollution, said David Villagrana, EDF’s lead counsel for clean energy tax solutions.
Fuel risk is the part you can’t plan around. A gas plant built in 2028 may burn fuel for 30 years, and gas prices can jump. An Energy Innovation analysis from June 2026, cited by Utility Dive, estimated that a 2022-style spike in coal and gas prices would add $40.5 billion a year to US electricity costs under a fossil-heavy scenario. We’ve already seen how fast fuel shocks travel in our look at Europe’s diesel reserves.
Opinion: the cost gap is real, but utilities aren’t irrational. They’re paid to keep the lights on at 3am in a windless January, and a promise of cheap solar doesn’t settle that worry. The honest answer is probably more storage and transmission, which is the slow, unglamorous part nobody wants to fund.
Could the gas boom stall before it starts?
Yes, and the report says so itself. A plan in an EIA filing is not a power plant. Three things stand in the way:
- Turbine shortages. Only a few companies make large gas turbines, and their order books are full. “Rising gas turbine costs and supply shortages are already making new gas plants more expensive and slower to build,” Villagrana told Utility Dive.
- Shaky demand forecasts. Data center projects get announced, resized and cancelled all the time. If the AI buildout cools, some of these gas plants lose their reason to exist.
- Local pushback. Communities and some states are pushing back on new data centers, which puts the gas plants planned to serve them at risk.
Meanwhile, clean power keeps growing elsewhere. Our report on Europe’s 70% jump in EV sales shows the electrification trend that’s adding to grid demand on both sides of the Atlantic.
What happens next
Watch three things. First, the EIA’s quarterly generator data: if the 68 GW figure keeps rising, the fossil fuel comeback is speeding up. If cancellations start climbing, the boom is softening.
Second, Congress. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, introduced in the Senate on 30 September 2026, would stop federal agencies from revoking energy permits they’ve already issued and would speed up reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act. That could help projects of every kind. Sierra Club opposes it; Citizens’ Climate Lobby backs it.
Third, fuel prices. Gas is cheap until it isn’t, and every new plant ties ratepayers to that bet for decades.
FAQ
How much new fossil capacity is the US planning?
About 68 GW between 2026 and 2030, almost all natural gas, according to EDF and Atlas Public Policy’s October 2026 report. That’s up 45% in six months.
Is renewable energy shrinking in the US?
No. Clean power still has the largest share of planned capacity. Its growth has slowed since its 2024 peak, and cancellations have risen since 2022.
Why are data centers linked to gas plants?
Data centers need steady power around the clock. Utilities see gas plants, which can ramp up on demand, as the quickest reliable way to serve them, though turbine shortages are slowing that down.
Want to see where the power is going? Read our breakdown of Amazon’s push into AI chips, the kind of hardware pushing grid demand up. Then check your utility’s next rate filing.
1 comment